By Political Reporter
Election observer and governance analyst Dr Blessing Vava says the outcome of Zambia’s 2026 general election was shaped more by political organization and incumbency advantages than campaign excitement, arguing that the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) entered the race with significant structural advantages over its opponents.
Speaking after observing the election, Dr Vava said his pre-election assessment had focused on the ability of political parties to convert support into votes rather than on campaign rallies or public enthusiasm.
“Our assessment was based less on opinion polls or campaign crowds than on the structural capacity of the competing political formations to convert support into votes,” he said.
Dr Vava noted that President Hakainde Hichilema benefited from incumbency, nationwide visibility and five years of building an organizational network across the country.
He said a key indicator was the disparity in parliamentary candidate representation between the UPND and the opposition National Revolutionary Party for United Progress (NRPUP), which backed Brian Mundubile’s presidential bid.
“The UPND contested all 226 parliamentary constituencies, while NRPUP contested 156. That 70-seat difference was a very important indicator of organizational capacity,” said Dr Vava.
He added that opposition fragmentation also weakened the challenge to the ruling party, with 14 presidential candidates initially entering the race before opposition forces eventually rallied behind Mundubile.
“By the time Mundubile emerged as the principal challenger, the opposition had very little time to construct a truly national campaign,” he said.
Dr Vava said the election result should not be interpreted as uniform support for the government, pointing to strong regional voting patterns across the country.
“The Copperbelt was almost evenly divided, while Mundubile won Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces. The UPND dominated Southern, Western and North-Western provinces. There was a very strong regional component to the result,” he said.
He also highlighted the role of government programmes in influencing voter behaviour. According to Dr Vava, initiatives such as free education, social cash transfers, Constituency Development Fund projects, agricultural support and investments in water and energy infrastructure gave voters tangible achievements against which to judge the government’s first term.
At the same time, he said economic pressures, including the rising cost of living, enabled the opposition to remain competitive in urban centres such as Lusaka and parts of the Copperbelt.
Dr Vava described the outcome as “both a vote for the incumbent and a vote against an opposition that had not sufficiently organized itself to present a credible national alternative.”
While the UPND secured a decisive victory, he noted that the opposition still attracted nearly 1.9 million presidential votes.
“The real question now is whether those votes can be transformed into a permanent, nationally organized opposition movement before 2031,” he said.
