Business Correspondent
Zimbabwe’s economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2026, supported by stronger agricultural production, gold mining and efforts to increase local processing of critical minerals, according to a new country brief released by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
The report highlights Zimbabwe’s vast mineral resources, particularly lithium, gold, platinum group metals, diamonds and chrome, as key drivers of its economic prospects, while pointing to reforms aimed at strengthening macroeconomic stability, industrialisation and trade.
Afreximbank estimates that Zimbabwe’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 8.3% in 2025, buoyed by a recovery in agricultural output, strong gold exports and elevated international gold prices.
Growth is forecast to remain firm this year, supported by improved agricultural yields, government spending and favourable conditions in the gold mining sector.
The report also projects a significant decline in inflation, from an estimated 55% in 2025 to 3.9% in 2026, attributing the anticipated improvement to greater stability in the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency, increased domestic gold production and stronger foreign currency inflows.
However, the projections remain dependent on the performance of key economic sectors and the sustainability of ongoing stabilisation measures.
Zimbabwe’s mineral endowment is identified as one of its strongest competitive advantages, particularly as global demand for minerals used in electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems continues to grow.
The country has substantial lithium resources and high-grade spodumene deposits, alongside significant gold, platinum group metals, diamond and chrome reserves.
Afreximbank says Zimbabwe has an opportunity to move beyond exporting raw commodities and establish a stronger position in regional and international industrial supply chains through local processing and value addition.
The government’s restrictions on raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, introduced in February 2026, form part of efforts to curb mineral leakages and encourage domestic beneficiation.
The policy is intended to ensure that more value from the country’s natural resources is retained locally through processing, manufacturing and the development of supporting industries.
However, the success of the strategy will depend on the availability of reliable electricity, infrastructure, investment and the technical capacity required to establish competitive processing
The report also highlights the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2), covering the 2026-2030 period, which prioritises macroeconomic stability, infrastructure development, industrialisation and job creation.
These priorities are central to Zimbabwe’s ambition to transform its mineral wealth into broader economic growth and employment opportunities.
Afreximbank also identifies the proposed development of oil and gas resources in the Cabora Bassa Basin as a potential source of longer-term economic opportunities, following a petroleum production-sharing agreement signed in May 2026.
The country’s evolving financial sector is another area highlighted in the report, with digital banking developments expected to support wider financial inclusion and improve access to financial services.
Commenting on the release of the country brief, Afreximbank Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence, Yemi Kale, said Zimbabwe could use its mineral resources to build stronger domestic industries and expand regional trade.
“Zimbabwe’s rich endowment of critical minerals offers a powerful opportunity to move beyond the export of raw commodities and build competitive regional value chains anchored in local production, beneficiation and value addition,” Kale said.
He said converting lithium, gold, platinum group metals and other resources into higher-value products could deepen Zimbabwe’s industrial base, create quality jobs and expand trade with markets across Africa.
Kale added that the strategy aligned with Afreximbank’s mandate to transform African trade and accelerate industrialisation under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The country brief comes as Zimbabwe seeks to attract investment into mining, infrastructure and manufacturing while reducing its reliance on the export of unprocessed commodities.
