By Tichaona Katsvamutima
Zimbabwe faces renewed uncertainty over electricity supplies after the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) announced a 36 percent reduction in water allocations for power generation at Kariba Dam in 2027.
In a statement, the Authority said the combined water allocation for Zimbabwe and Zambia would fall from 36 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2026 to 23 BCM next year, citing forecasts of below-normal rainfall associated with strengthening El Niño conditions.
The decision threatens to constrain electricity generation at Kariba South Bank Power Station, a critical component of Zimbabwe’s electricity supply, potentially increasing pressure on the country’s already vulnerable energy sector.
“The Authority has approved a combined water allocation of 23 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) for power generation at the Kariba Power Stations,” the ZRA said.
“This allocation will be shared equally between ZESCO Limited and the Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), with each Utility being allocated 11.5 BCM.”
Zimbabwe’s allocation will consequently decline from 18 BCM this year to 11.5 BCM in 2027, significantly reducing the volume of water available for hydroelectric generation.
The announcement comes despite a substantial recovery in Lake Kariba’s water levels following improved rainfall during the 2025/26 season.
As of October 14, the lake held 23.77 BCM of usable water, representing 36.68 percent of its usable storage capacity, compared with just 8.25 BCM, or 12.75 percent, during the corresponding period last year.
However, the Authority warned that the outlook for the coming rainy season remains unfavourable.
“The outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern parts of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region,” the statement said.
“This is linked to El Niño conditions that have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen.”
Southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe are expected to experience below-normal rainfall during the early part of the season, with the conditions likely to extend across most areas of both countries between January and March 2027.
The Authority projects that Lake Kariba’s usable water reserves will decline to 16.24 BCM by December 31 this year before falling further to 5.83 BCM by the end of 2027, equivalent to just nine percent of live storage.
The projections raise questions about Zimbabwe’s continued exposure to climate-related disruptions in electricity generation and the adequacy of alternative power sources to cushion the economy against potential shortages.
While the reduced allocation does not automatically translate into electricity cuts, it places renewed pressure on energy planners to ensure sufficient generation capacity outside Kariba.
The ZRA said it would continue monitoring water utilisation and coordinating with electricity utilities to ensure compliance with approved allocations.
“The Authority will also continue to assess water availability against its projections and communicate any operational decisions that may be made,” it said.
The latest developments underscore the risks associated with Zimbabwe’s reliance on hydropower and the urgency of strengthening alternative electricity generation capacity to protect households, businesses and industry from further energy disruptions.
