Billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe has emerged as a serious potential unity candidate for the ANC’s 2027 leadership race, with growing support for his possible candidacy adding another dimension to a succession battle already taking shape ahead of the party’s elective conference.
Motsepe has repeatedly distanced himself from suggestions that he wants to become ANC president, but the PM27 campaign has continued to promote him as a possible successor to President Cyril Ramaphosa.
IOL reported earlier this year that the campaign was prioritising the ANC’s performance in the 2026 local government elections, with campaigners saying their efforts to promote Motsepe would formally begin once the party’s nomination process opens.
The ANC has meanwhile warned members against premature campaigning for leadership positions.
Polling has also added momentum to the speculation.
A Social Research Foundation poll previously reported by IOL put Motsepe five percentage points ahead of Deputy President Paul Mashatile among general voters in a theoretical race for the ANC presidency.
Among ANC voters, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula led Mashatile by 15%.
A July poll reported this week by News24 again placed Motsepe as the leading choice among the public and ANC supporters in a theoretical race to succeed Ramaphosa.
The latest polling comes as the ANC faces a major electoral test in the 2026 local government elections.
The party lost its national majority in the 2024 general election, securing 40.18% of the vote and subsequently entering a Government of National Unity with opposition parties.
Its performance in the local elections, particularly in the major metros, could influence the political environment in which the 2027 succession contest unfolds.
A political analyst, who asked not to be named, said Tshwane was likely to remain under DA control, citing the party’s interventions in infrastructure development, road expansion and service delivery.
The analyst identified Tshwane and Ekurhuleni as the most contested metros, with the DA, Economic Freedom Fighters and smaller parties potentially becoming important in coalition arrangements.
Parties associated with Herman Mashaba and Mmusi Maimane could become “chess pieces” in coalition negotiations, the analyst said.
The EFF was losing ground, the analyst said, pointing to mixed feelings about its Abahambe campaign and questions around Julius Malema’s leadership.
Malema’s arrest and the tensions surrounding it could also affect the EFF’s campaign and its ability to gain the momentum it was seeking, the analyst said.
The DA was “galloping as a dark horse”, particularly in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni, where coalition formations could determine who governs the metros.
It is against this backdrop that Motsepe’s potential candidacy is being assessed, with political analysts cautioning that popularity among voters does not necessarily translate into winning the ANC presidency.
Political analyst Professor Theo Neethling, a research fellow in the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State, said Motsepe had emerged as a serious potential unity candidate, although there remained a significant gap between his viability as an internal compromise figure and his chances of becoming South Africa’s next president.
“Patrice Motsepe has emerged as a serious potential unity candidate for the ANC’s 2027 elective conference, though a distinct gap remains between his viability as an internal compromise figure and his likelihood of becoming South Africa’s next president,” Neethling said.
Neethling said Motsepe’s position as an unaligned billionaire was a double-edged sword.
His vast business success, global philanthropic profile and lack of previous factional baggage allowed him to project a clean and competent image capable of appealing to the black middle class and business sectors, he said.
Motsepe’s direct family ties to Ramaphosa also gave him unparalleled access to the ruling establishment, Neethling said.
However, his lack of state administration experience raised questions about his ability to manage a complex government bureaucracy and coalition environment.
His immense personal wealth also left him vulnerable to political attacks from opponents who could portray him as a product of Black Economic Empowerment patronage, Neethling said.
He said early-2026 polling showed Motsepe had high public favourability, outperforming traditional political insiders such as Mashatile and Mbalula among both the general electorate and ANC voters.
However, Neethling cautioned that polling among voters did not automatically translate into winning the ANC presidency.
“Winning a national popular survey does not translate directly into securing the ANC presidency,” he said.
Neethling said the ANC’s leadership process was governed by internal branch nominations, provincial machinery and liberation credentials.
“Motsepe is a billionaire mining magnate and sports executive, not a career politician,” he said.
“His business success offers a fresh image free from government failure, but he lacks experience running a complex state administration.”
Neethling said Motsepe was a serious contender as a unity candidate for the ANC’s 2027 leadership race, but winning the actual presidency remained a long shot because of the party’s internal politics.
