By a Correspondent
Zambia’s August 13 general elections are shaping up as a major test of democratic governance in Southern Africa, with the outcome likely to attract close attention in neighbouring Zimbabwe and across the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
As Zambians prepare to elect their president, lawmakers and local representatives, the poll has assumed significance beyond the country’s borders, coming at a time when questions over electoral credibility, constitutionalism and the strength of democratic institutions remain central to political debates across the region.
The leading contender is incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, who is seeking a second term under the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND). Hichilema enters the election with the advantages of incumbency and a relatively fragmented opposition.
Hichilema’s strongest challenger is Brian Mundubile, the candidate of the opposition Tonse Alliance, which brings together forces linked to Zambia’s former ruling Patriotic Front. Mundubile’s prospects will depend heavily on whether the opposition can consolidate its support and challenge Hichilema in areas that were previously strongholds of the PF. The opposition has, however, been weakened by internal divisions and the fragmentation of the former ruling party, giving Hichilema a significant political advantage.
Fred M’membe, leader of the Socialist Party and the candidate of the People’s Pact, is another prominent opposition figure. M’membe has built a profile as a vocal critic of the government and could attract voters dissatisfied with both the ruling party and the traditional opposition. However, the fragmented nature of the opposition makes it difficult for smaller candidates to mount a serious challenge to the two leading contenders.
Harry Kalaba, the Citizens First candidate backed by the CF Orange Alliance, and Makebi Zulu, who is running on a Patriotic Front faction ticket, are also competing for the presidency. Their chances of winning outright appear more limited, but they could influence the election by drawing votes from opposition constituencies and potentially affecting the overall balance of support between Hichilema and Mundubile.
Overall, the election is widely viewed as primarily a contest between Hichilema and Mundubile. Hichilema appears to hold the stronger position because of incumbency and the opposition’s divisions, but the final outcome could be influenced by voter concerns over the cost of living, economic conditions, turnout and the ability of opposition parties to mobilise their support bases.
With 14 candidates cleared to contest the presidency, the central question is whether the opposition’s fragmented vote will allow Hichilema to secure a second term or whether Mundubile can consolidate enough support to force a political upset.
For Zimbabwe, Zambia’s election presents an opportunity to assess how neighbouring countries manage political competition, institutional checks and balances and the transfer of political power.
The two countries share deep historical, economic and social ties, with their relationship extending beyond their common border along the Zambezi River. They are connected through trade, energy infrastructure, transport corridors and regional political interests, meaning developments in Lusaka can have implications for Harare.
The August 13 election will also provide a test for SADC’s ability to promote and uphold its own democratic principles.
The regional bloc has confirmed that it will deploy an Electoral Observation Mission to Zambia, with observers expected to monitor the pre-election period, polling day, vote counting and the immediate post-election environment.
The mission is scheduled to release its preliminary statement on August 15 before completing a more comprehensive assessment of the electoral process. SADC says the deployment is part of its commitment to promoting democratic governance, peace, political stability and credible electoral processes in the region.
The credibility of the election will therefore be closely watched, particularly by Zimbabweans who have long followed the regional body’s handling of elections in member states.
Zambia’s experience could offer important lessons for Zimbabwe as the country continues to debate the future of its electoral and constitutional system.
The political environment in Zimbabwe has in recent months been dominated by debate over the controversial constitutional amendments which have extended President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s term of office. Critics have warned that the changes will weaken democratic accountability and public participation, while supporters argue that the reforms are intended to strengthen governance and improve the functioning of state institutions.
Against this backdrop, the conduct of Zambia’s election is likely to fuel comparisons between the two neighbours.
At stake is not simply who wins the presidency in Lusaka, but whether the electoral process provides voters with confidence that their choices will be respected and that institutions can operate independently.
For SADC, the election presents another opportunity to demonstrate whether its democratic principles can be applied consistently across member states.
The regional bloc has often faced criticism over its approach to disputed elections, with civil society groups and opposition parties in some countries questioning whether SADC has been sufficiently firm in demanding electoral reforms and accountability from governments.
Zambia’s poll will therefore be closely scrutinised for signs of whether the region is moving towards stronger democratic institutions or continuing to tolerate weaknesses in electoral systems.
The stakes are also economic.
Zambia and Zimbabwe are linked through major trade routes and regional infrastructure, while electricity shortages and energy cooperation remain important issues for both countries. Political stability in Zambia is consequently in Zimbabwe’s economic and strategic interests.
A peaceful, credible and broadly accepted election would strengthen investor confidence and reinforce Zambia’s position as an important regional economic partner.
Conversely, a disputed or poorly managed election could deepen political tensions and create uncertainty in a region already facing economic pressures, unemployment and a growing demand for better governance.
The August 13 vote will thus be watched not only in Lusaka but also in Harare and throughout SADC.
For Zimbabwe, Zambia offers a mirror across the Zambezi — a chance to reflect on the importance of credible elections, strong institutions and respect for constitutionalism.
The ultimate test will be whether Zambia’s political system can deliver an election whose outcome is accepted by voters and political competitors alike.
If it does, the result could reinforce the argument that democratic institutions remain central to regional stability and development.
If it fails, questions will once again be raised about SADC’s capacity to ensure that its democratic commitments translate into meaningful action on the ground.
Either way, Zambia’s August 13 election will matter far beyond its borders.
